Executive Summary
https://transitionsecurity.org/mining-for-war/
Driven by concerns about supply chain vulnerabilities amid escalating great power competition with China, the Pentagon is accelerating efforts to secure access to the so-called critical minerals, which are essential to military industries. Central to this push is a ramped-up effort to stockpile these materials within the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) National Defense Stockpile. The Pentagon’s expanding demand for critical minerals risks diverting vital resources away from civilian decarbonisation initiatives and accelerating militarised competition at a time when global collaboration is essential for a just climate transition. When industrial strategy is shaped by military and national security priorities, it not only entrenches geopolitical conflict but also distorts pathways for equitable climate action, redirecting public resources and state capacity away from the broader demands of rapid and just decarbonisation. This briefing examines how the Pentagon’s role in mineral supply chains, particularly through stockpiling, challenges the global energy transition.
Key findings:
- Since the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which earmarked billions of dollars to bolster the National Defense Stockpile, the DLA has solicited contracts to stockpile a growing list of critical minerals, including several materials essential to the energy transition.
- The DLA plans to stockpile almost 7,500 metric tons of cobalt. That amount of cobalt could be used instead to produce 80.2 gigawatt hours of battery capacity — more than double existing energy storage.
- The DLA’s planned cobalt and graphite stockpiles could be used instead to produce approximately 100,000 electric buses — fifteen times more than are currently in operation across the United States.
The global transition to low carbon energy hinges on access to minerals which are vital components of renewable technologies. Estimates suggest that at least thirty energy transition minerals and metals (ETMs), such as lithium, cobalt, graphite and rare earth elements (REE), form the material basis of the energy transition. 1 Many of these same materials are also used to manufacture military technologies: everything from precision-guided weaponry and advanced communication systems to an emerging arsenal of military technologies such as AI-driven autonomous warfare platforms. Virtually every modern weapons system relies on mineral components. 2 The US government refers to these materials as “critical minerals”, where “criticality” is defined by a material’s economic or national security importance and susceptibility to supply disruptions. 3 Such designations authorize new modes of state intervention to ensure access and production, such as financial support, regulatory fast-tracking and other market-crafting efforts. 4 While there are overlaps, shorthanded in this briefing as “dual-use”, not all decidedly “critical” minerals are ETMs, nor are all ETMs captured within US critical mineral lists.
Beyond military applications, some of these same minerals are increasingly in demand for civilian technologies such as semiconductors, large-scale data centres and AI computing infrastructure, further intensifying competition for constrained supply chains. 5 As demand grows, global supply chains for these materials face mounting pressures, driven less by geological scarcity at present than by limited refining and processing capacity and the potential for future market volatility. In the United States, efforts to secure critical minerals are increasingly driven by concerns over China’s dominance in mineral markets and the perceived strategic vulnerabilities this creates amid intensifying great power rivalry — a posture that has not only persisted, but escalated across the first Trump, Biden, and now second Trump administrations. Washington is ramping up stockpiles, forging trade deals, investing in domestic production and even taking equity stakes in mineral companies to “onshore” supply and assert dominance over mineral supply chains. 6 By exerting control over the sourcing and distribution of critical minerals, the Pentagon is diverting materials away from civilian-led decarbonisation efforts while maintaining its role as the world’s largest consumer of fossil fuels and a major driver of climate change. 7
This briefing considers the US military’s role in driving extractive demand by analysing recent procurement activity by the Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), with a focus on critical and dual-use minerals. These materials are increasingly relevant not only to military supply chains and digitalisation but also to civilian renewable energy technologies, raising urgent questions about how resources are allocated and for what interests. Given the significant social and environmental harms associated with large-scale mining, mineral resources should be directed towards socially useful sectors. Advancing a just energy transition requires strong environmental regulation and enforcement, along with coordinated planning across sectors to support a sustainable industrial strategy, which centres equity, reduces emissions and directs public investment toward long-term green transformation. 8 By analysing recent trends in the DLA’s stockpiling of critical and dual-use minerals, this briefing demonstrates the US military’s expanding influence over mineral supply chains and associated risks to the energy transition and global resource governance.
